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Showing posts with label Mumme Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mumme Poll. Show all posts

Friday, January 8, 2010

Final Mumme Poll Ballot

Last Mumme Poll vote of the year. If you haven't gotten yours in yet, go to it.

Here's my final ballot. As always, your input is appreciated.

THE NATIONAL CHAMPS

1.) Alabama. No doubt about this one. I had Alabama atop my poll for the vast majority of the season, and while I'm disappointed we didn't get to see how the national championship game would have played out with a healthy Colt McCoy, there's zero question in my mind that the best team in the country is the one with the crystal trophy.

THE REST OF THE TOP FIVE


2.) Boise State. They didn't lose. They beat both Oregon and TCU this season. They were rarely even challenged. Beyond that, we're just guessing at what might have happened if they'd played a tougher schedule. But we don't know. All we know is Boise State won every one of their games, which is good enough for the No. 2 spot in my book. (Particularly when, before the bowls, I had TCU at No. 2 and felt good about it.)

3.) Texas. Again, I'd have loved to see Colt McCoy play the whole game. Who knows what might have happened. But part of the reason the McCoy injury was so brutal was because Texas was really never a great all-around team. They were far too dependent on McCoy. So credit to the Horns for keeping it relatively close -- which is more than a healthy TIm Tebow could do against 'Bama -- but this is as high as I can put them.

4.) Florida. I still think 'Bama was the only serious test Florida got all year, and they were blown out in that game. Cincy had a remarkable season, but when you've been ditched by two coaches in three weeks leading up to your bowl… well, that can take the air out of your tires a bit. Still, I have no problem calling Florida the fourth-best team in the country.

5.) TCU. Yes, they lost to Boise State, but maybe that shouldn't be a knock on them. After all, they beat six teams that won bowl games during the regular season. This is a very good team, and worthy of a top-five vote.

THE NEXT SEVEN

6.) Ohio State. Begrudgingly. But in truth, I'm not sure that a win in a bowl game six weeks after their last regular-season game should make me overlook their utter incompetence in non-conference play in the previous three years, but I don't see anyone else that I could make an honest case for placing above them.

7.) Iowa. As impressive a bowl win as any, and when you consider that their only two losses of the year were both close and came without their starting quarterback, I give the Hawkeyes a bit of extra credit.

8.) Cincinnati. It would be easy to overlook a great regular season because of how they fared in the Sugar Bowl. But again… hard to blame them for looking bad after all that happened to them during December.

9.) Virginia Tech. The Hokies thoroughly dominated Tennessee and their three losses this year were to two teams playing in BCS bowls (including the national champs) and a three-point loss to North Carolina. VT was probably the best team not playing in a BCS bowl game.

10.) BYU. The Mountain West showed well during bowl season, the Cougars thumped a surging Oregon State team, and their only losses this year were a strange one to Florida State (which at least had the talent to be a good team) and to TCU. Very solid, if unspectacular.

11.) Oregon. Yes, they lost to Ohio State, which obviously comes with a stigma during bowl season. And no, the Pac-10 did not do well in the bowls, which makes me reconsider how strong the conference really was. But the fact remains that Oregon was a solid top-10 team for me all year and so I'm not changing my mind on that based on just the bowl game. Although I did consider it.

12.) Penn State. I've worked to overlook Penn State all year because their schedule was a total joke. And to be honest, a close win over LSU isn't all that impressive to me. But it was just enough to move them into the top 12. Still, you could easily find 25 teams with more impressive wins than Penn State has.

JUST MISSED THE CUT

13. Nebraska. Finished as strong as anyone.

14. Georgia Tech. Finished as bad as anyone.

15. Pittsburgh. Cincy's flop (and the overall incompetence of the Big East) in bowl season didn't help Pitt's resume. I think they could be a top-five team next year though.

A few last thoughts...

-- I definitely took the bowl games into serious consideration when filling out my final ballot, but I tried not to weight them any more heavily than I would a big regular-season game.

-- The toughest calls for me were on Oregon (which I really didn't know what to do with) and Penn State (which I just don't think has a really impressive win on their resume).

-- Here's my feelings on the BCS: Yes, they got it right in the title game. If there had been a playoff, I'm fairly certain that the final would have been Alabama beating Texas. So that's great.

But imagine if you will a scenario in any other sport where the postseason began a full month after the regular season ended and there were a half-dozen coaching changes in between for teams still playing and the matchups were set arbitrarily by a third party unaffiliated with the sport's governing body and there were teams that everyone was impressed by throughout the year but they didn't get a shot at a title because they had never won one in previous years and some teams only had to play 12 games to get into the postseason but others had to play 13 and the network that broadcast many of those postseason games didn't carry any of your sport's games all year.

What would you think if I told you that scenario took place in the NFL or in Major League Baseball? You'd call it absurd. You wouldn't stand for it. No one would take it seriously for a second. But because this is how college football has always worked, for some reason it's OK.

I'm not going to sit here and say a playoff fixes all college football's postseason problems. I don't beleive that at all. But the current system is downright absurd to the point that the results of most of these bowl games are effectively meaningless. I love bowl season. I love college football. But I hate this system to the point that it clouds my enjoyment of every game that happens this time of year.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 14

It's the final Mumme Poll before the bowl games, and while the BCS has already made their selections, you still have your chance to vote on how you think the postseason should look. If you haven't submitted your ballot, go do it now. Once you have, let me know how yours stacks up against my picks...

The Top Five

Alabama -- Enjoy that second national championship, Nick Saban. And really, after covering the SEC title game Saturday and being on the field with the Tide players and coaches after the game, it's not hard to see why they're here. That's a talented team, no doubt, but not the most talented in the country. But they're extraordinarily well coached, disciplined and focused. It sounds cliched to say they simply want it more, but I do think there's a bit of that desire that has them fighting harder than most other teams to get to No. 1. This is just a really, really good football team in every sense.

TCU -- If it were just up to me to vote, I'm pretty sure I'd have the Horned Frogs playing Alabama for the national title. No, their schedule in total wasn't as tough as Texas', but they had more big wins and looked more consistent throughout the season. There really weren't many times TCU was even challenged. And maybe I'm reaching a bit here, but I think if you left the schedules exactly the same but simple said TCU plays in the Big 12 and Texas is from a non-BCS conference, things would have played out differently. It's not about the competition, it's about history, and that's a shame.

Texas -- It's very possible that Texas is good enough to win a national title, but when you play back-to-back close games against Texas A&M and Nebraska, I'm not sure why that is supposed to be so impressive to voters. And it might have meant more if the Horns had beaten anyone else of any significance along the way. Instead, their marquee wins this year were over a five-loss Oklahoma team and a depleted Oklahoma State team. The didn't even play a team all year with fewer than three losses (and Okie State was their only three-loss opponent) and their non-conference slate didn't include a single team from a BCS conference. There's absolutely nothing Texas has done to prove they are any better than Cincinnati, TCU or even Boise State or Florida this season other than wear uniforms that say "Texas" on the front.

Florida -- I've been on record all season saying that the Gators were not as good as their record showed. They really didn't get much tough competition throughout the year either, and I had a feeling that when they finally played a team with speed on defense and an offensive line that could handle their pass rush, things could get ugly. That's exactly what happened as Alabama thoroughly dominated every aspect of the SEC championship game. Still, if Carlos Dunlap plays in the Sugar Bowl, I see no reason the Gators can't still end the year with another win. They were a very good team this year, but not the great team they were a year ago. But hey, that's nothing to cry over.

Cincinnati -- There's something to be said for a team that fought back as hard as the Bearcats did Saturday. That was an impressive win, even if it wasn't all that impressive of a performance in the game. But on the road, in the snow with the rumors of your coach's imminent departure swirling faster than the wind in Heinz Field, to gather themselves and march back from a two-score deficit to win by a point against a top-20 team, well, I think Cincy has a real argument to be made about missing out on a chance at a national title, too.

The Next Seven

Oregon -- I'll be honest, I really wanted to move Oregon ahead of Florida. But the truth is, 1.) There's a big difference between three losses and one loss, and 2.) I'm not sure the Ducks' defense is good enough to hold the Gators at bay the way 'Bama did. Still, I think Oregon is pretty clearly the best of the rest, with apologies to Boise State, which certainly has a valid argument for that title.

Boise State -- Their resume isn't significantly less impressive than Texas' and not only were they not even in the conversation for the title game, it was debatable whether they would even get a BCS bowl of any sort. If that doesn't illustrate how flawed the system is, I don't know what does. And now, we'll get Boise State vs. TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, it will get lousy ratings, and neither team will have "proven" anything when it's over. All we'll get is a faux argument from the bleeding-heart columnists about TCU or Boise State deserving a share of the national championship but no real change will have happened. Next year, the system will remain what it is, everyone will have forgotten about the Fiesta Bowl matchup that no one watched, and college football will continue with the same flawed logic that has underscored its postseason since the beginning. It would be laughable if it wasn't so sad.

Virginia Tech -- Let's look at the Hokies' losses: To No. 1 Alabama by 10, to No. 9 Georgia Tech by five, and to an 8-4 North Carolina team that ended its season by winning four of five by a whopping three points. So, two losses to top-10 teams by a total of 15 points and one other nail-biter against a solid opponent by three. VT might be the most overlooked team in the country. I would have happily given them a BCS bid over Iowa.

Ohio State -- Oregon will beat them by 20.

LSU -- The third best team in the best conference in football and their only losses were to No. 1 Alabama, No. 5 Florida and an 8-4 Ole Miss team. It's essentially the same resume as Virginia Tech in a better conference. And much like Tech, LSU easily could have won all three of the games they lost. There's something to be said for being competitive in all 12 games, especially when you win nine of them.

Georgia Tech -- It's awfully hard for me to get past the loss to Georgia and not think about the lack of physicality for Tech. It's even harder to ignore the 233 yards and four TDs CJ Spiller posted last week. That Yellow Jackets offense can be intimidating, but this might be the worst defense on a top-10 team in years. Just brutal. They're extremely lucky to be getting a depleted Iowa in the Orange Bowl instead of a high-flying offense like Cincinnati or Boise State.

Stanford -- I really debated whether to put Stanford or Iowa here. On one hand, Stanford has four losses compared to Iowa's two. On the other hand, Stanford plays in a better conference and has the player I think is the best in the country in Toby Gerhart. The tie-breaker for me was the fact that I think Stanford is playing better football right now, and if the two teams played head-to-head tomorrow on a neutral field, my guess is Vegas would have the Cardinal favored by at least 3. I would have called their matchup with Oklahoma the best non-BCS game of bowl season, but it sounds like Andrew Luck won't play, which diminishes the game just a bit.

The Last Ones Out

Iowa -- Again, I have no problem with anyone who thinks Iowa belongs in the top 12, and I applaud the Orange Bowl for taking the Hawkeyes over Penn State, which probably would have been a more marquee opponent. But I just don't have much respect for the Big Ten -- particularly in bowl season -- and Iowa has lost two of its last three and hasn't topped 24 points against a bowl-eligible team since beating Arizona 27-17 back in mid-September.

Miami -- I don't know if we're overvaluing or undervaluing that brutal four-game stretch to start the year for Miami, but I do know that 9-3 against a tough schedule with all three losses being excusable makes for a team that at least warrants consideration for the top 12 and I'll happily load up on the 'Canes to thump Wisconsin in the Champs Bowl.

Penn State -- Actually, I didn't consider Penn State for even a second. I just wanted to mention them here because I thought it would be useful to point out that the best team they beat all year may well have been Temple. Penn State is the perfect example of a team getting by on name-recognition alone.

Monday, November 30, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 13

If you haven't cast your penultimate Mumme Poll ballot of the year, get to it now .

When you're done, here's how my ballot shapes up...

The Top Five

Alabama -- Some people may look at the Auburn game as an indication that Alabama is beatable. I look at it as an indication that the Tide are capable of doing the one thing I wasn't sure they could do -- come from behind on the arm of Greg McElroy.

Texas -- That defense looked ugly against Texas A&M, but I'm inclined to believe almost anything can happen in a rivalry game, so I'm not going to call it a total indictment of the Horns. That said, I wouldn't be shocked if they lost to Nebraska this week.

Florida -- Well, Timmy got the sendoff ESPN wanted for him. Now let's see if the Alabama defense proves as enjoyable. Something tells me he'll be crying for much different reasons this time.

TCU -- Playoff or no playoff, I think it's a shame we're unlikely to see how TCU stacks up against the best of the best because I really think they'd have a shot to win.

Cincinnati -- Currently .014 points behind TCU in the BCS standings. A win over Pitt could move the Nati up a notch, which would be huge since it would likely make the Bearcats the team to slide into the national title game should Nebraska pull the upset.

The Next Seven

Oregon -- The top five is virtually unanimous at this point, but if you asked me which team I'd least like to play, Oregon might well top my list. I'm looking forward to this weekend's showdown with the Beavers more than anything that's happened in Oregon since rumors of "Goonies 2."

Boise State -- With Oklahoma State's loss, Boise State is nearly a lock for the BCS now. My fear, however, is that we'll see a Boise State-TCU matchup that will amount to little more than a Bracket Buster game that will prove nothing. Both teams deserve a shot to knock off the big boys.

LSU -- Not the prettiest of games last week, but Les Miles managed to win that one late. The Tigers aren't a great team, but they're pretty good, and two their three losses are to the No. 1 and 2 teams in the BCS standings. The third came strictly because their head coach had to pee and didn't want to wait around for overtime.

Ohio State -- I'm 100 percent certain that the Big Ten is more of a fraud than the ACC, but we're going to have to wait until bowl season to prove it.

Oregon State -- Still have a shot at the Rose Bowl, which is pretty impressive for a team that opened the season with some lackluster performances. Don't think for a second that Cincinnati won't be pulling for the Beavers this weekend in a game that could boost both teams' profiles.

Virginia Tech -- I made the mistake of putting Clemson here last week and a reader called me out on it. One trip by the Figthin' Dabos to Columbia later and I stand corrected.

Georgia Tech -- This really illustrates the absurdity of trying to do these rankings. I'd take Georgia Tech head to head over any of the Big Ten teams and they've already beaten Virginia Tech handily. But I wouldn't put money on the Jackets against any of the top eight or nine teams in the SEC or Pac-10 (for completely different reasons).

Waiting In The Wings

BYU -- That Florida State loss looks increasingly bad, but Oklahoma's win over Okie State helps the profile a bit. They're definitely not a BCS team, but they'll be an interesting bowl matchup for someone.

Stanford -- That loss to Cal was so obviously predictable that I almost can't hold it against Stanford. Toby Gerhart officially has my Heisman vote. (You know, if I had a vote.)

Iowa -- I think Iowa's defense actually might be good enough to play with the big boys in the SEC in a bowl game, but I don't see them scoring more than 10 points against anyone.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 12

If you haven't submitted your Mumme Poll ballot yet, get to it.

After you have, let me know how yours compares to mine...

The Top Five

1.) Alabama.

2.) Texas.

3.) TCU.

4.) Florida.

5.) Cincinnati.

The top four teams on this list played pushovers last week, winning by a combined margin of 203-33. Cincy barely escaped with a three-point win over a decent West Virginia team. Essentially, there was nothing to be impressed by or worthy of discussion in the top five.

The Next Seven

6.) Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson spent the week off thinking of new ways to embarrass Willie Martinez.

7.) Boise State. Utah State was even with the Broncos at 14 apiece with 4:47 left in the second quarter. Then Boise State reeled off 21 points before the half. That's good.

8.) Oregon. It took two overtimes to beat Arizona, but a win is a win, and the Ducks will face their in-state rival this weekend for a berth in the Rose Bowl.

9.) Pittsburgh. They also had the week off before finishing up with West Virginia and Cincinnati. But since they haven't clearly proven they are no good yet, I'm sort of forced to give them the benefit of the doubt.

10.) Clemson. The loss to Maryland in utterly inexplicable, but their other two defeats are to top six teams, which is more than I can say for Ohio State, which continues to look every bit like what SEC fans think Big Ten teams look like.

11.) Oregon State. Their three losses were to Cincinnati (a top five team) and Arizona (an above average team) early in the year and at USC by six. They've won four straight in impressive fashion. I like 'em.

12.) Ohio State. Here by default, or as Homer Simpson calls it: "The two sweetest words in the English language… De-Fault! De-Fault!"

Just Missed the Cut

13.) Iowa. I'll say this: if I'm an SEC team, and I know I'll be in one of the 106 bowl games that pits SEC vs. Big Ten, Iowa is the one team I don't want to face.

14.) Oklahoma State. They may deserve to be higher, but who have they beaten? Georgia? Um, not so impressive. They lost to the only two high quality opponents on their slate and without Dez Bryant they aren't the top-10 team they might have been to start the year.

15.) Ole Miss. Without expectations, they're not a bad team. If Jevan Snead could come close to resembling the QB he was last year, they'd be very dangerous.

It seems to me at this point, there is a very clear line of demarcation between the top eight and the rest of the list. If we had an eight team playoff, I'd be OK having money on almost any of those top eight, with the possible exception of Boise State. (And that's only because I don't know if Boise State is good or not rather that an assumption that they couldn't hang with the rest.)

Nine through 11, to me, are late-bloomers with potential. Ole Miss fits that bill, too. But we can't ignore what happened earlier in the year just because they're playing so well now.

The bottom of the list is really anyone's guess. You can make plenty of arguments for or against, but the bottom line is this: Those teams are all fatally flawed somewhere, and 12th place is just the 11th loser.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 11

If you haven't taken the time to vote in the Mumme Poll yet, what are you waiting for? Go do it now.

If you have, let me know how your ballot compares with mine...

The Top Five

1.) Alabama. The offense got back on track a bit, but I still can't say I'd trust 'Bama to win a game in which Greg McElroy had to make a big throw when it counted.

2.) TCU. They've played a more impressive schedule than Texas or Florida and have looked better doing it. The Horned Frogs are really the best argument against the BCS we've seen so far. I really think this might be one of the top two teams in the country, but the voters won't let it play out that way. But if you made me put a bet down today, I'd take TCU over anyone except Alabama, which means they end up here on my list.

3.) Texas. Longhorns haven't impressed, haven't been challenged, but they have been pretty consistent.

4.) Florida. The defense is good, there's no doubt about that. But this is just not a dangerous team offensively and nowhere near the caliber of last season's team. I'm just not buying in. And I'm also perplexed as to why Tim Tebow is still in the Heisman discussion.

5.) Cincinnati. I'll give Brian Kelly a ton of credit for handling a sticky QB situation really well, but the Bearcats have pretty firmly been shuffled to the back of the pack among the top five.

The Next Seven

6.) Georgia Tech. A week off, at home against Georgia and a likely ACC title matchup with Clemson. If Tech hadn't caught Miami at the worst possible time, there's a real chance we're talking about them as national championship contenders.

7.) Boise State. Another week, another big win. This one at least came against a team with a winning record, but the Broncos are now at a point where they're simply crossing their fingers for a BCS bid. TCU has one locked up. The SEC will get a second team, and the Big Ten is likely to as well. That leaves one last BCS slot, and ironically, it'll probably come down to Boise State or a Pac-10 team, where that win over Oregon will carry a lot of weight.

8.) Oregon. That loss to Stanford was ugly and the loss to Boise State hurts, but both are every bit as excusable as LSU's two losses. And I like Oregon's upside more than LSU.

9.) LSU. The Tigers are perhaps the most lackluster BCS-caliber team I've ever seen. You hear nothing about them unless they're losing to a top-two program. It'll be interesting to see what happens against Ole Miss this week. I'm just not sold on LSU at this point.

10.) Ohio State. I hate Ohio State. I'll have fun watching them get waxed in the Rose Bowl.

11.) Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has not played a ranked team all season and that won't change this week. The streak will finally end Dec. 5 against Cincy, but I expect Pitt's winning streak to end then, too. Dave Wannstedt's mustache is not allowed to go to a BCS game.

12.) Stanford. I had no idea who to put here, but I like what Stanford has done lately, so I give them the benefit of the doubt over some teams I'm already sure aren't very good like Penn State and Iowa.

Last Teams Out

13.) Clemson. I'm probably overrating them, but this might be the team I had the hardest time overlooking. Two of their three losses are to top-six programs and the third will go down as by far the most inexplicable loss of the season. Add to that the fact that Clemson probably has the best overall player in college football, and I really want to put them in my top 12.

14.) Oklahoma State. I guess the win over Texas Tech is a good one, but the loss to Houston now looks even worse.

15.) Iowa. It was actually a pretty valiant effort against Ohio State with its backup QB, but injuries have really taken their toll on what might have been a pretty solid team if healthy.

16.) Wisconsin. Seven home games so far proves nothing to me. The Badgers are awful on the road with a loss to Ohio State and 3-point wins over awful Minnesota and equally awful Indiana. Most overrated team in college football, methinks.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 10

Alabama won, but won ugly. Florida's offense was back to looking awful. Texas still hasn't beaten anyone. Tech needed overtime to get past Wake. Iowa, Penn State and Oregon all lost. This week took a lot more thought to put my top 12 together.

So here's what I did: I picked out 20 teams that I thought were pretty solid. Then I went through and thought, if this was a round-robin tournament, who would I be eliminating first? I went through that process over and over and came up with my rankings that way.

The result wasn't particularly surprising. My top teams look much like the BCS standings. My mid-level teams look a bit different. What that tells me is that we should be pretty solid on who the best teams are, but the funny thing is, outside of Alabama, none of those top teams have really posted more than one impressive win.

So where does that leave us? Well, once again we're doing a whole lot of assuming...

THE TOP FIVE

1.) Alabama. The offense is still struggling, but Alabama has the luxury of a running game that's good enough to keep them in games until Greg McElroy can make a play. They're not winning pretty, but they're winning, and that W over LSU was the most impressive of the week among the top teams.

2.) Texas. Man, the Big XII is a joke. I think there's a good chance that Texas is pretty solid, but how do we know? Regardless, the Colt McCoy-Jordan Shipley combo is fun to watch.

3.) Florida. It's easy to see the struggling offense and call this an overrated team, and in truth, you'd probably be right. But the reason they're so overrated is because people are paying too much attention to Timmy Tebow and the offense and not nearly enough to that defense which is just absurdly good. They've kept the opposition out of the end zone in five of nine games. Wow.

4.) TCU. I'm hopeful that the Horned Frogs get their shot against a real opponent in a bowl game (i.e. not a second-tier Big Ten or ACC team) because I think there's a chance this team might legitimately be at the same level as those top three. The defense is very, very good and the offense behind Andy Dalton is better than they get credit for. Utah's on tap this weekend, which should be one of the best games of the week.

5.) Cincinnati. The computers actually have Cincy at No. 3, well ahead of Texas (who is No. 5). If they played head to head and you made me put money down, I'd still take Texas though, which is why I have Cincy at 5. But it's not by much.

THE NEXT SEVEN

6.) Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were lucky to escape against Wake Forest, but if I'm going to continue to give Alabama and Florida credit for close wins, I have to do the same for Tech. They'll close out the ACC with an easy win over Duke this week, but I'll be interested to see what happens in a rematch in the title game with Clemson after the Tigers came awfully close to knocking Tech off earlier this season.

7.) Boise State. Louisiana Tech isn't a big win, but it's good to see the Broncos travel a long way and still lay the wood. But now that I don't have to give them as many bonus points for that Oregon win, I feel a little more comfortable with them out of the top five.

8.) LSU. They lost, but the pollsters didn't seem to care much, and the computers didn't care at all. Neither do I. The Tigers have hung tough in every big game this year, but it's pretty clear they don't have the offense to put a good opponent away. This is sort of the line of demarcation between great and pretty good.

9.) Miami. The overtime loss to Clemson seems more reasonable each week and their only other defeat was a road game against a decent Virginia Tech team amid a stretch of four straight games against ranked opponents. And let's not forget how they dominated Georgia Tech. Right now I'd call Miami the most underrated team in the top 25.

10.) Oregon. I know, I know, they got spanked by a smart-kid school. But Stanford is solid, so it's hardly an embarrassing loss, and it was a classic trap game scenario. The pollsters gave up on the Ducks after the game (14 Harris, 16 Coaches) but the computers still like 'em at No. 10. So do I.

11.) Pittsburgh. Meh. They've played no one, but they close out with three straight against Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati. I see virtually no way they go 3-0, but for now, Pitt's better than the other teams vying for this spot.

12.) Houston. This was just a gut call. They keep narrowly escaping, and that loss at UTEP might go down as the worst of the season by a top team. But they still have the win over Okie State and Case Keenum is legit, so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. But really, there could be any of about six or seven different teams in these last two spots.

LAST TEAMS OUT

13.) Iowa. The loss to Northwestern was almost inevitable, wasn't it? You can only get by by the skin of your teeth so many times before it catches up to you.

14.) USC. That offense is downright bad, and the defense isn't half as good as it was a year ago. They'll have trouble against any team that can put points on the board.

15.) Ohio State. Hey, they beat a lousy Penn State team and will now probably get to lose another BCS game!

16.) Arizona. I think this might be the team to watch, but I'm far from convinced yet. But with dates against Cal, Oregon, Arizona State and USC the rest of the way, there's still plenty of time for the Wildcats to make their case.

So, what are you guys thinking?

* And if you haven't voted yet... GET TO IT!

Monday, November 2, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 9

If you haven't submitted your Mumme Poll ballot yet, go do it.

If you have, feel free to let me know where I'm wrong.

Here's my list...

Top Five

Alabama -- The Tide better hope Greg McElroy remembered how to play QB during their off week. This week's game vs. LSU remains the last really big game on the SEC slate.

Florida -- I'm far from convinced they are the best team in the country, but the Gators definitely have a ton of talent. They made some plays, and Georgia helped them out quite a bit. Regardless, they're the SEC champs now, and only Alabama stands in their way.

Texas -- Dominated an overrated Oklahoma State team and, like Florida, is essentially on cruise control until the conference title game. Unlike Florida, however, they don't have anyone the caliber of Alabama waiting at the end.

Oregon -- Just a very impressive win from what has probably been the most dominant team in the country during the past six weeks. In a head-to-head match right now, you'd have to like the Ducks vs. almost anyone.

Boise State -- At this point, I think TCU, Boise and Cincinnati are all about the same. But if I have Oregon up this high, I felt obligated to do the same for Boise State.

The Next Seven

TCU -- The Horned Frogs will probably finish the year with more impressive wins than that other undefeated team from Texas. Not that it will matter.

Cincinnati -- You get no credit from beating Syracuse, but the rest of their slate should be a good test. Connecticut isn't a pushover, and West Virginia and Pittsburgh await.

LSU -- Not much credit for beating Tulane either, but win this coming week and things get very, very interesting in the SEC West.

Georgia Tech -- Hey, Georgia's defense looked better against Vandy than Tech's did. So that's something, right? Eventually, that awful GT defense is going to come back to haunt them. Of course, eventually may not be until the bowl game.

Penn State -- Below, I will list all of Penn State's impressive wins:

...

...

...

Got that? Yikes. The Nittany Lions scheduled no one out of conference and play in the awful Big Ten. Thankfully they'll get Ohio State in the Overrated Bowl this week and, ideally, we can stop talking about at least one of them for the rest of the season.

Southern Cal -- The Trojans probably don't belong here either. I really want to put Houston here. Next week. For sure.

ADDENDUM: I'm dumb and simply forgot to add Iowa here. I did vote for them, but typed up this post between player interviews yesterday and somehow skipped the Hawkeyes. My bad.

Yes, Iowa definitely deserves to be on here, and I'd probably have them close to the top five if they could just put one impressive performance together. It says a lot about the heart of a team that continues to come back and win, but it says a lot about the talent of a team that continues to fall behind early to significantly inferior opponents.

Last Teams Out

Houston -- Could they beat USC? I dunno. Do they deserve to be ahead of USC? Probably. Do I like to ask questions I plan to immediately answer myself? You betcha.

Pittsburgh -- They have beaten no one. They get Syracuse this week. Next Monday, they'll still have beaten no one. They get Notre Dame the week after that. The following Monday, they'll still have beaten no one. (And yes, I do think they'll beat Notre Dame.)

Ohio State/Miami -- Pretty sure neither team is any good. Then again, who is?

Monday, October 19, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 7

If you haven't turned in your Mumme Poll ballot for this week, go do it now.

As for mine, here's how I voted. Remember, the Mumme Poll does not ask for rankings, but I've included them here anyway.

1. Alabama - South Carolina is no slouch, and 'Bama still looked good. They've been what we expected Florida to be.

2. Florida - Is it better to be lucky or good? Eh, doesn't matter when you get the calls from the refs that Florida gets.

3. Texas - We're seven games into the season, and I'm still not sure if Texas is really that good. Add in that they could get Okie State at half-strength and a lousy Big 12 North opponent in the title game (like Kansas State?) and I'm not sure the 'Horns have a much better argument for the title game than Boise State does.

4. Cincinnati - And neither of those two have as good an argument as Cincinnati. Mark it now: These guys are going undefeated. Brian Kelly is a great coach, the Big East is (marginally) a BCS conference and Cincy still gets two more games vs. top-25 teams. Tell me why they couldn't make it.

5. Iowa - They don't make any of them easy, but hey, someone has to embarrass the Big Ten in the BCS this year, and Iowa is now the hands-down favorite.

6. Southern Cal - I really thought they'd blow the doors off Notre Dame, and now I'm angry that we'll be subjected to more "moral victory" talk for the Irish. (NOTE: In the first BCS rankings, Southern Cal is 11th in the computer ranking.)

7. Boise State - No, their schedule isn't going to get any more impressive, and yes, they keep winning close ones against teams they should thump, but the bottom line is they keep winning. Already at No. 4 in the BCS, perhaps that Boise State-in-the-national-title-game isn't quite so far-fetched.

8. Oregon - We're two weeks away from USC-Oregon to decide who has the best one-loss team.

9. Miami - That win over Oklahoma could have looked a lot better if the Sooners could have held on to knock off Texas. If there's one team on this list I think I'm probably undervaluing, it's Miami.

10. Georgia Tech - Will anyone be shocked if the Jackets follow up that huge win over Tech by laying an egg against Virginia this week? Yeah, me neither.

11. TCU - They haven't beaten anyone but they haven't lost to anyone either. Beyond the top 10 teams, there really isn't anyone who particularly excites me, so I see no reason to keep TCU out. Plus, they'll get their chance to prove themselves this week against BYU.

12. LSU - In the past three weeks, the Bayou Bengals have celebrated a touchdown in just one quarter of action. And yet, they move up this week.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

13. Virginia Tech - They kept it close, just as they did against Alabama. The Hokies are easily the best two-loss team in the country, but moral victories still don't count for me.

14. Penn State - Beat someone, and you'll get respect.

15. Houston - Two good wins and one ugly loss. But how can I not put them ahead of Oklahoma State?

WHERE I WENT RIGHT LAST WEEK: I was among the few (just 14 percent) who included Oklahoma on their ballot last week. While the Sooners couldn't come through against Texas, they came awfully close. Three close losses to three top-15 opponents without their Heisman-winning QB. If anyone gets to talk about moral victories, it's Oklahoma... I was one of only about 27 percent of the voters to leave Ohio State off their ballot. The Buckeyes proved me right by getting thumped by gawd-awful Purdue.

WHERE I WENT WRONG LAST WEEK: I had Cincy ranked way too low at No. 11. I hope I made up for it this week... I had Virginia Tech ranked too high, apparently, but I still think the Hokies are probably one of the few two-loss teams that are still upper-echelon.

* See last week's poll results HERE.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Mumme Poll Ballot: Week 6

If you haven't submitted your Mumme Poll ballot yet, go do it right now. It's OK. I'll wait.

If you have, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.

I'm ranking the teams here because, well, it reads more interesting that way. But keep in mind that the Mumme Poll does not officially ask for you to place one team ahead of another. It's simply a ballot -- you're either on it or you're not. So while I may have a Alabama ranked 12 spots ahead of Oklahoma here, it doesn't reflect that way in the official Mumme Poll ballot.

Anyway, here's my ballot:

1. Alabama. The Tide have played a tough schedule and looked good doing it. I've been immensely impressed at their ability to handle adversity and they've seamlessly transitioned to a new QB and new O line. Nick Saban knows what he's doing.

2. Florida. Boy do they look beatable. Too bad they won't play anyone who is likely to beat them until the SEC championship game. Unless Georgia gets it together quickly, that is.

3. Virginia Tech. Played Alabama closer than most people remember, and Alabama is the best team in the country. Add in wins over two more teams I have ranked in my top 15, and it's pretty easy to put VT here. I'm looking forward to the matchup with Georgia Tech this weekend.

4. Texas. Boy that Colorado game looked like it had some trap-game potential early. But the Big 12 North is what it is, and Texas ended up steamrolling the Buffs in the second half. Next week, I might have them No. 1. For now, however, they haven't beaten anyone.

5. USC. One loss, on the road, in a tough environment, without their starting QB, against a former assistant who knew the Trojans' system inside and out, against a future NFL first-round QB. Not excusable, but understandable.

6. Iowa. I'm not convinced Iowa is better than Ohio State, and Ohio State lost at home to USC. So while I'm on the Hawkeyes bandwagon until they lose, I can't move them past USC into the top five just yet.

7. Miami. Sure, they were dominated at Virginia Tech, but that opening gauntlet was insane, and the Hurricanes looked good in their other three matchups vs. ranked teams. The game in Blacksburg underscored the notion that there's still a lot of work to be done, but for now, they deserve some credit for surviving a miserable stretch of schedule.

8. Boise State. What are you supposed to do with them? They've beaten an Oregon team that I think is pretty good, and they won't play anyone else worth mentioning. At the very least, I wish college football had a "bracket buster" weekend the way college basketball does.

9. Oregon. The Ducks have looked great since an opening week loss at Boise State. They have wins over two ranked teams (even if Cal was a fraud) and I can easily forgive a Thursday night road loss to another top-10 team to open the season with a brand new head coach. We've seen the real Oregon in the past five games.

10. TCU. Here's what I know about TCU -- They have a great nickname and they can dominate the crappy members of the ACC. (I know, I know… isn't that all of them?) The Horned Frogs get No. 19 BYU in two weeks, however, and Colorado State won't be a pushover next week. Right now, I'm assuming I'm a believer.

11. Cincinnati. They have a date with No. 21 South Florida in Tampa this week. That will be a good test. But right now, they still belong on the strength of an increasingly impressive win over Oregon State on the road.

12. Oklahoma. I'm not certain the Sooners belong here, but I gave them the last slot on my ballot for three reasons: 1.) They've been without their Heisman-winning QB for almost the entire season, and now he's back. 2.) I looked at the teams I was comparing them with, and in a head-to-head matchup, I'd pick the Sooners to win easily in each. 3.) They play Texas next week, and if they win, I'll be proved right, and if they lose, I'll have no qualms about dropping them off the list.

Left off my ballot:

13. Ohio State. A win over fraudulent Wisconsin doesn't impress me. The Buckeyes will once again dominate the Big Ten afterthoughts, but the last time they won a game that really meant something I weighed about 30 pounds less. Those were the days.

14. LSU. The defense continues to impress under John Chavis, but that O line is a mess. They'll beat teams (like Georgia) with questionable offensive attacks, but there's no chance of the Tigers winning any shootouts this year. Too many close calls against inferior teams and a pretty definitive loss to the lone good team they've played -- a game in which LSU mustered 3 points and Tim Tebow was kept on a short leash.

15. Nebraska. The win over Missouri was good, but this isn't Chase Daniel/Jeremy Maclin Missouri. The last-second loss at Virginia Tech was a good sign, too, but it's too early in the season to hand out bonus points for moral victories.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Last Chance to Register

You have one more day to register to be a voter in the 2009 Mumme Poll balloting.

All you have to do is cruise over to the Mumme Poll home page HERE and register. Then submit a sample ballot by no later than Monday at 9 p.m.

After that, you're a voter -- the most important part of our democracy. You know, besides lobbyists.

If you have any other questions, check out Senator Blutarsky's post on this year's poll.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Mumme Poll: Up & Running

I mentioned this yesterday, but now it's official: The 2009 Mumme Poll is up and running.

For the uninitiated, the Mumme Poll is the brainchild of Senator Blutarsky over at Get the Picture. The idea was simple enough: Is it possible to create a college football poll that more accurately defines the best teams in the country and eliminates bias?

Last year's efforts proved intriguing, but this year, the Senator is taking things to the next level. He has teamed up with several other bloggers from around the country -- including myself -- to improve analysis and commentary on the poll, but more importantly, he's teamed with the folks at 3rd Saturday in Blogtober to help bring the voting to an even larger populace -- including you.

Still need some more info? Start HERE, with the Senator's basic rundown. Then go HERE to read the background from 3rd Saturday in Blogtober. Finally, head HERE to register and practice casting a ballot. And don't forget to bookmark the site.

Starting in Week 6, the balloting will be for real, and ideally, by year's end, we'll have a much better view of the college football season than the coaches' poll, AP poll or BCS rankings provide.

IMPORTANT: This directly from the good Senator: Please make sure your readers know that (1) they have to register between now and 9:00 PM EST Monday and (2) they must cast a dry run ballot between 9:00 AM EST Sunday and 9:00 PM EST Tuesday -- err, Make that MONDAY. If they don't do both, they'll be locked out from voting the rest of the season.

Possibly related link:I got an email from a reader in North Carolina yesterday. He runs his own alternative poll over at whobeat.net that offers some unique perspective. Be sure to check it out.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

From the Mailbag: Problems With Refs, Coaches, Polls and Predictions

Addressing a few reader comments…

From Gregg in Albany: There has been some confusion on whether the refs in ASU game were a SEC or PAC 10 crew. I am fairly certain they were an SEC crew. Agree? Regardless, it is amazing to me that the SEC, which has the BEST players, most attendance, unbelievable fan passion, and the MOST money, has the WORST officials in college football!!!!!!!!!!!! Simply amazing.

DH: Yup, I looked it up (which I probably would have been wise to do earlier) and the refs were from the SEC, led by Matt Austin and highlighted by umpire Wilbur Hackett. You'll remember Mr. Hackett from this play…



From Anonymous: I also think we are shortchanging the extent of the challenge we had with these 4 teams, each of which basically prepped for us solely all winter/spring and summer and then tuned up with cupcakes (NC State TEN days prior excepting).

Add 3 GREAT college coaches (and Gundy not too shabbby offensively) and that was a meatgrinder opening month.

LSU will be the first game where they haven't prepped for us exclusively. (Imagine, even in Game 4 the opponent had 2 scrimmages and a bye week with a 2 time National Championship winning calibre coach prepping to play us!)

Hunker down even 2 of the next 3 more times and this may get interesting!

DH: This was in addition to my minor defense of the coaching staff in the wake of a particularly negative comment about them, which insinuated Richt & Co. were the worst unit in the SEC so far this season.

I'm not saying Richt, Mike Bobo and Willie Martinez have been perfect this season. They haven't, and they certainly have not always put their players in the best situations for success, but they have faced a particularly tough test, too.

In addition to what Anon writes -- which really cannot be overstated -- Georgia also has used at least a dozen players in significant roles on offense or defense this season who had zero or one career start prior to the Oklahoma State game.

I'm not saying the coaching staff deserves an 'A' for their efforts this year, but they're nowhere near an 'F.'

From Preston Jones' Indifference: Question--can you elaborate more when you say that you don't necessarily agree with some of the choices the staff makes from Sunday to Friday?

DH: Sure, but first off, let me say that we see remarkably little of practice and I'm far from qualified to be a football coach, so my criticisms are really not worth much, and mostly based on speculation derived from the game day results.

What I was referring to with that rather broad comment, however, were the little things that continue to crop up at key moments in close games that essentially have to be based on coaching decisions made long before the game begins. Examples: The focus on penalties during the week, the philosophy to employ directional kicking rather than kicking deep, the desire to limit the number of top players working on special teams, the continued reliance on some struggling veterans rather than giving youngsters a chance, the handling of conditioning, which was supposedly tough but didn't exactly show up during the Okie State game.

There are other examples, but those come to mind quickly. But the upside is that several of them -- such as giving playing time to Marcus Dowtin and Baccari Rambo and giving Blair Walsh a few more chances to kick deep -- seem to be changing.

Again, I'm not saying I'm right on any of these comments. It's just my opinion mixed with my observations. But given the fact that the coaches do seem to be making some adjustments that lean closer to my take on the aspects I've noted, I think there's probably more I'm right about than not.

From Todd: I enjoy reading your blog. I'm a UGA alum who lives in Colorado. I'd like to see some comments about the polls this year. The inconsistency of the voters just begs for a play off in my opinion. Three examples...

1) How is Penn State ranked ahead of Iowa after Iowa crushed them in their own stadium at night?
2) How is USC back in the top ten after Washington loses to Stanford?
3) Ole Miss loses to South Carolina (which isn't a top 25 team now?) and drops to #21. USC loses to a Washington team that was winless last year and only drops to #12?

The polls are becoming laughable. And this is how we want to pick the BCS?

DH: You might also ask how LSU is ranked fourth in the country despite the fact that its fans want Les Miles canned for doing such a terrible job coaching.

The polls are a joke right now, and the worst part is that the ridiculous aspects of this week's rankings will have a carry-over effect the rest of the way. There's no way LSU is where it is now if people weren't just voting based on where the Tigers were in the preseason.

Of course, all this leads me up to a reminder that I'll be a contributing writer on the new Mumme Poll blog. Senator Blutarsky from Get the Picture and the fine folks at 3rd Saturday in Blogtober have set up the Web site, and anyone interested in participating can register and help us find a better way of creating a college football poll.

The first vote will take place after Week 6, and I should have lots more info to share with you in the next few days. So stay tuned...

From Anonymous: First I'd like to say, as a Maconite, that I thoroughly enjoy reading both your Telegraph write ups and your blog. Always highly informative. So thank you for that. Secondly, I'd like to call you out on your Marlon Brown prediction last week saying you "guaranteed" MB's first catch of the year against ASU. What were you basing that on? I am dying to see this kid in action! Thanks again.

DH: Ah, I'm glad someone called me on this. I did guarantee Marlon's first catch during my chat session last week, and sadly, he didn't come through.

My thought process was this: We saw more of Rantavious Wooten against Arkansas, so how far behind could Brown be? Then I figured Georgia should the win over Arizona State wrapped up by the fourth quarter, giving guys like Brown a chance to finally get some playing time. Given that the Georgia coaches have to be as curious to see him in action as many of us are, they would undoubtedly find a way to get him a catch during garbage time.

Well, to say the least, I was wrong.

Joe Cox and Mike Bobo have both given Brown their endorsements, so I'm certain we'll see more of him at some point this season, but at this rate, we may be waiting until Tennessee Tech.

In the meantime, what's a fair punishment for me for not coming through on my guarantee?