More Fun With Numbers: All the Right Moves

OK, I promise we'll be done with recruiting stuff after this. Well, probably.

Anyway, earlier today I talked about the relative value of a 5-star player over a 3-star player, long term. But those are pretty general evaluations, and obviously you can't get a 5-star guy at each position every year. So while the premise remains worthy (Georgia needs to go after the top athletes and be successful at landing a few of them each year), reality dictates that they also need to get the most out of the rest of the crop of players they land.

So, who's doing a good job with that? Let's go position by position.

Again, these are numbers for Georgia's recruits from 2004-2008, so really, this probably says more about UGA than it necessarily does about things on a macro level, although you could probably make a fair argument that players at a position like O line can be more easily turned from 3-star recruit into 5-star talent because less pure, measurable athleticism is needed than for, say, a cornerback to make that same leap. In any case, here's how UGA's players have developed...

Position	Recruiting Stars	Production Stars	Difference
DE	3.75	2.41	1.34
WR	3.82	2.55	1.27
OL	3.3	2.05	1.25
QB	4.0	2.75	1.25
LB	3.77	2.54	1.23
TE	3.2	2.0	1.2
DB	3.47	2.59	0.88
DT	3.86	3.14	0.72
FB/RB	3.7	3.0	0.7

Obviously there are a ton of different factors that go into determining whether a player develops as he is expected to -- injuries, effort, intelligence, luck and coaching come to mind as the primary ones.

Of course, if you look at those factors, the first four seem to me to be variables shared at each position. A linebacker is just as likely to get hurt as a wide receiver, for the most part.

What changes from one position group to the next is the coaching.

So while we can't rule out those other factors as potential reasons why an individual player fails, for the purposes of comparison, they should mostly cancel each other out when we're talking about a larger group.

If that's the case, then the chart above, which measures the difference between expectations of players and production -- or "failure rate," if you will, seems to me to be as good an indication of the relative ability of position coaches as anything, and what those numbers tell me is that things are pointed in a good direction at Georgia right now.

Hear me out...

If we look again at those position groups, there are a couple of external factors that should be considered:

-- The O line "failure rate" is higher -- and certainly higher than fans would like -- but that number is probably skewed due to a high level of attrition at the position in the year immediately following Stacy Searels' arrival.

-- The "failure rate" at QB is a bit on the high side, too, but that is due in part to the low number of QBs recruited. If one fails, it has a far more dramatic effect on the total than one failure in the linebacker group, for example. Same is true for tight ends. (Plus, in just a 5-year time span, it's hard for more than two QBs to be deemed a success, since only one can play at a time.)

So, keeping that in mind, we have six groups that we can compare fairly easily: DBs, DEs, DTs, LBs, WRs and RBs.

Look at those results: Three of those groups are doing a pretty lousy job, statistically speaking, at turning potential into production. Three have done a pretty solid job.

For all the talk of Jon Fabris' talent with defensive ends (his silver lining after destroying special teams), the numbers say that he's gotten less out of the talent at that position than any other coach on the staff. Of the 12 DEs signed between '04 and '08, only three -- Justin Houston, Demarcus Dobbs and Charles Johnson -- had production that matched their recruiting grade. (None dramatically exceeded their grades, although Houston certainly could still make that leap.)

Of course, Fabris is gone now.

Georgia has managed to produce a couple of very, very good wide receivers during this time period. In fact, two of the 5-star production guys were wide receivers -- Mo Massaquoi and AJ Green. And yet, there's a big group of WR recruits who have failed to live up to their promise, too. Sure, Israel Troupe could still blossom, but the track record of guys like Demiko Goodman and Tony Wilson and Walter Hill is hard to ignore.

Of course, Tony Ball would be the guy in charge of turning around Troupe's career. It was John Eason who presided over those past "failures."

When it comes to linebackers, it's hard to ignore the fact that Georgia has a former player who started on an NFL playoff team (Dannell Ellerbe) and another likely to get drafted before round 4 this year (Rennie Curran). But on the whole, this is an underperforming group, too. I like the futures for Marcus Dowtin and Christian Robinson... but what about Charles White, Darius Dewberry, Akeem Hebron and Marcus Washington? Heck, Darryl Gamble and Akeem Dent could have huge senior seasons, but so far, they've been more talent than performance.

Of course, that was John Jancek's department. And he's gone now, too.

So the position coaches who appear to have had the least success at turning promise into performance are all gone now, replaced during the past two offseasons.

I somehow doubt these are the numbers that Mark Richt was crunching when he made the decisions to let those guys go (or in Eason's case, move him upstairs), but that doesn't mean he didn't come to the right conclusion anyway.

It's still far too early to tell what type of impact Georgia's new coaches will have, but it's nevertheless encouraging to know that the problems were identified. Because if Tony Ball and Todd Grantham and Warren Belin can each take one guy per season who might have been a "failure" under the old regime and turn him into a success, that'll mean 12 more productive players four years from now. And that's a significant difference.

ADDENDUM: Rex Robinson brings up the interesting case of Tony Ball in a recent post on his blog, noting that Ball's resume could have been another factor in the loss of Da'Rick Rogers.

I lumped Ball in with the "successful" assistants in this analysis because the overall grade for running backs was solid during his tenure, but it's probably a bit more accurate to say that the jury is still out.

Ball developed two very good fullbacks in Brannan Southerland and Shaun Chapas, but Southerland was already a starter when Ball arrived.

Ball also presided over one of Georgia's biggest success stories in Knowshon Moreno. Of course, Ball was also the position coach who thought Knowshon needed a year to redshirt in 2006.

And then we have Caleb King's stunted growth during his first two years in Athens before blossoming under Bryan McClendon and we have Marlon Brown's lost 2009 season. Ball was in charge in both cases.

So... does Rex have a point about Tony Ball?

I think we'll have a much better idea of that after this season, when it will be incumbent upon Ball to make sure that Israel Troupe, Marlon Brown, Tavarres King and Rantavious Wooten -- each of whom has a high upside -- begin to reach their potential.

You've Got Your Plan, I've Got Mine

We've talked a good deal about all the conflicting messages coming out of Georgia's locker room this week, but I came across another example last night that almost made me laugh out loud.

First, I suggest you check out the quotes from "Fifth Quarter Show" regulars that The Senator has on his blog regarding Georgia's kickoff philosophy. (Warning: If you're subject to sudden mood swings, violent behavior or you've already consumed more than six ounces of bourbon today, don't read this.)

"If you’re wondering what happened, former Georgia players A.J. Bryant and Kelin Johnson, now regulars on the “Fifth Quarter Show,” put it all into perspective. Both of them played on special teams for Fabris, and they said that it wouldn’t matter whether the Dogs had a kicker who could put it in the end zone or not; Fabris likes “the challenge” of directional kicks. That’s just Coach Fab, they said, get used to it."

So... Jon Fabris likes "the challenge" of directional kicking? Yikes.

Anyway, for obvious reasons the kickoff strategy is a hot topic of conversation for fans, which is why I asked Mark Richt whether the results last Saturday, which included a long run back by Perrish Cox to set up a touchdown, swayed his opinion any. Here's what he said...

“The fans want the long kick, but the longest kick had the longest return. The kicks that were a little shorter had the better hangtime and ball placement, and we covered those better."

So... long, line-drive kickoffs = easier returns for the opposition. Short kicks with lots of hang time = easier coverage for Georgia. Got that?

OK, flash forward to a question I posed to Tony Ball about why Branden Smith twice returned kicks that were deep into his own end zone. Here's what Ball had to say...

"After asking (upback Shaun) Chapas about it, he felt like with them being line-drive kicks, that kind of threw things off, so there was some dynamics there that he had to make some decisions. ... I felt like the one, in particular, he should have kept him in the end zone where he was really driven back, but even (Justin) Fields, my fullback, told me that the line drive kick kind of threw him off and there was too much separation between the returner and my fullback."

In other words, when Georgia is returning a kick, it's much tougher to field those long line drives than if, say, Oklahoma State had punted short with lots of hang time.

So the thought process among Georgia's kickoff coach is that short, high kicks are harder for the opposition to return.

The thought process for Georgia's kick return coach is that long, low kicks are harder to return.

I would love to hear Fabris and Ball discuss this with each other.

Little Things a Big Deal for Ball

When Tony Ball swapped jobs from running backs coach to wide receivers coach, the general consensus was that he made the switch just in time, considering the departure of star tailback Knowshon Moreno.

As it turns out, working with Georgia's stable of replacement running backs might be an easier task that what Ball now faces, with just two veteran wide receivers on the roster. But while Ball will be tasked with trying to find some suitable cohorts for Michael Moore and A.J. Green, the general consensus is that he's just the right man for the job.

"(Having Ball) helps a lot," redshirt freshman receiver Tavarres King said. "He's helped me with so much in the short time he's had me, and I feel a lot better about myself and my abilities."

While former wide receivers coach John Eason was a big-picture guy in terms of approach, Ball is just the opposite, spending most of his time focused on the small details and reteaching the basics of the position. That's exactly what the young crop of receivers needs, according to Georgia's lone senior receiver.

"He's a lot more intense," Moore said. "He has more attention to detail. He wants you to get out of your break as quickly as possible. He wants you to be able to break the DB off. When you line up, they could put anybody in front of you and he wants you to have confidence you can break him off. Coach Eason was a more laid-back guy. Coach Ball, he's focused on our technique and trying to get that together."

It's not a drastic change, King said, but the lessons Ball is teaching fit the students in the classroom, and that's had a big impact.

"It's nothing different, he just works us, works us on the small things," King said. "He's a technician and that's what I like about him."

Of course, that doesn't mean Ball has left his old lot of Bulldogs high and dry. Even without Moreno, Ball's still keeping tabs on how the running backs are doing, and he's made sure they know where to find him, too.

"I still talk to him every now and then, ask him for a few little pointers and give him a few updates on how I feel, what I'm doing," sophomore tailback Richard Samuel said. "I still check in on him, and anything dealing with the running backs, he makes sure we can still go and talk to him even though he's no longer our position coach."

Practice Notes: Competition at Kicker

By season's end last year, Mark Richt had promised to go to Poland to find a kicker who could reach the end zone on kickoffs. As it turned out, he only had to go as far as his mailbox.

Georgia announced Thursday that it had signed kicker Brandon Bogotay, a junior college transfer from San Diego, who only began playing football midway through his senior year in high school.

Bogotay still had another year of eligibility remaining at Grossmont College in El Cajon, Calif., and his coach didn't send out any footage of the kicker, assuming he would return for his sophomore season. Bogotay decided to send out some tape on his own.

"He might have heard that Poland comment," Richt said. "I can't tell you how many times we watched that video."

It didn't take long for Richt to decide Bogotay had what Georgia was missing a year ago, but Georgia wasn't the only school interested. Bogotay had visited Hawaii a week earlier and had interest from several other schools, too, so Richt decided it was time to pull the trigger on a scholarship offer.

"Word started to get going, and I didn't want to get in a position where somebody closer to home got him," Richt said.

From Bogotay's highlight footage, Georgia's coaching staff was convinced he could be the answer on kickoffs -- an area the Bulldogs struggled mightily with a year ago.

"If you've seen tape on him, the obvious thing is that he has a very strong leg," Richt said. "Now, can he do it here? I don't know if the air is different in San Diego. There's just things you don't really know for sure. But we saw enough to think he has a chance to help us get really great field position when we kick the ball off."

Richt had said finding someone to handle kickoff duties this year would be a top offseason priority, but until he signed Bogotay, it appeared freshman Blair Walsh would land the job again by default.

"My goal as head coach is to make sure that we're better than we were a year ago, and we feel he gives us a chance to do that," Richt said. "If we get the exact same production that we got a year ago, did we really get better? I felt like we saw enough that this guy can help us be better, and that's what you want."

Richt said it will be an open competition this fall for all kicking duties, including extra points and field goals, and he expects that Bogotay's presence will push the current crop of Georgia kickers even if he doesn't win the job.

After a freshman season in which he delivered mixed results in the kicking game, Walsh said he is open to the challenge, but hopes to retain his job as both the field-goal and kickoff man.

"The mind-set that I have is they are bringing him in to compete at both positions, and that's what they're saying right now," Walsh said. "I've just got to treat it like that."

DAWGS SHOW RENEWED ENERGY

Tuesday, head coach Mark Richt lamented his team's lack of energy on the practice field, referring to the performance as "luke warm." Before the Bulldogs hit the field Thursday, Richt told his players he wanted to see more hustle, and that's exactly what he got.

"I really did like today," Richt said. "Tuesday I wasn't too thrilled. I thought we lost a little bit of that edge, but we really ran hard today. Guys were flying around. Both sides of the ball, great hustle, a lot of enthusiasm."

The strong day of practice was a good sign, quarterback Joe Cox said. While he admits that maintaining a high level of energy day in and day out is a tough task, he said bouncing back from a lackluster performance two days earlier illustrated the team's desire to stay motivated.

"That's the main goal is not to take any steps back and have a day where everybody knows it wasn't what we should have done," Cox said. "It's hard trying to keep people motivated every day for practice, but that is my main goal."

One of the day's biggest stars was freshman cornerback Brandon Boykin, who had two interceptions, but Richt said there has been no shortage of players who have impressed this spring.

"Our offensive line has had a couple times where they picked up some tough blitzes," Richt said. "Joe did a good job of working the pocket, threw some nice balls. ... Caleb (King) had a nice day running the ball in inside drill and on 11-on-11."

One play in particular stood out for Richt. It came on a pass from Cox to freshman Tavarres King, and Richt said it underscored how well the entire offense was working together.

"(The pass was) square over the middle that was within inches of Rennie (Curran) knocking it down, but it was a great catch on the run," Richt said. "There was a nice pick up of a blitz, Joe moving in the pocket, throwing a beautiful ball, Tavarres reaching out to snatch it on the dead run. It was impressive."

DOMINANT DOG

From Cox to Carlton Thomas to Bryan Evans and Rennie Curran, the spring platitudes have been plentiful. But if Richt had to narrow down his list to one MVP of spring practice, there's no doubt who would get the award.

"The most dominating player to this point has been Geno Atkins," Richt said.

Atkins has been a beast stopping the run and getting to the quarterback, and Tuesday he even returned an interception for a touchdown. The performance hasn't been particularly surprising, Richt said, as Atkins has been among Georgia's top defensive players the past two seasons, but this spring, the senior defensive tackle has taken things to a new level.

"They all struggle with him," Richt said. "Even a guy like Cordy Glenn, Ben Jones, he's tough as heck. They're talented guys, and Geno just kind of has his way with everybody right now."

A LOT ON THE LINE

Georgia will hold its first scrimmage of the spring tomorrow, and Joe Cox said no one on the team is taking it lightly. While coaches figure to use the practice to give some of the younger players a few more opportunities than they might normally get, Cox said Mark Richt already issued a warned his veterans that there will be a lot on the line for everyone.

"If you're a starter, tomorrow is where you solidify your spot," Cox said. "If you're a guy looking for playing time, tomorrow is where you get playing time. It is really good for the younger guys because they do get more reps, but it's not a period where the older guys can chill. It's time to prove ourselves that we can stay where we need to stay."

GREEN FEELING BLUE

A.J. Green wasn't sure how much he would be able to participate this spring due to a nagging groin injury, but through five practices, he was a full go. Thursday, however, he felt some soreness, and coaches decided to play it safe, sitting him out of most of the team's work.

"I wasn't 100 percent today," Green said. "I just had a little soreness. I did one-on-ones and stuff like that. They just told me to sit everything else out."

Both Richt and Green said they hoped he would be a full participant in Friday's scrimmage.

A LOT TO LEARN

For most of the Bulldogs, the spring is about picking up where they left off after their bowl game. For Georgia's receivers, however, new coach Tony Ball has implemented some major changes from the program they were used to.

"He's not changing the system, but he's changing how we do a lot of the little things," wideout Michael Moore said.

Where former coach John Eason took more of a big-picture approach to coaching, Moore said Ball has gone back to the basics. Instead of learning a plays, the receivers are working on fundamentals like coming out of breaks and gaining leverage on a defender.

"(Eason) stressed more the play, while Coach Ball stresses how to run your route," Moore said.

That has made this spring more of a learning experience for the receivers than for many of their teammates at other positions, and Moore said he has had to put in a bit of extra time at the office just to keep up.

"For us, we can't have enough time," Moore said. "After practice, me and A.J. (Green), we're still out there working on the stuff that Coach Ball is teaching us."

FLAG FIXATION

A year ago, penalties were the bane of Mark Richt's existence. Flags cost Georgia crucial yardage in nearly every game overturned several of the team's biggest plays of the year. Eventually, the penalties became the hot-button issue of the team's practice sessions, and punishments were in store for the whole team if it was flagged for too many infractions on game day.

"I can't say why we had as many penalties as we had a year ago because we didn't do anything that we hadn't done since I'd been here," Richt said. "As the season went along, we spent a lot more time emphasizing it, but it just got away from us."

Richt said Georgia's coaches aren't punishing players for penalties as much as they are encouraging a renewed focus on fundamentals. If a player is making smart decisions and getting into the proper position on a play, the odds of drawing a flag decrease significantly.

"By no means are we going to ignore it, but we're going back to the basics," Richt said. "The better our fundamentals and the better position we're in, I feel there's a lot less chance we'll have those kinds of penalties."

SPEECHES, BUT NO PLAQUES

Matthew Stafford had an arm so impressive it could earn him the distinction of becoming the top overall pick in the NFL draft. That's an asset Joe Cox knows he can't match, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have a strong weapon of his own.

"Joe's No. 1 thing is his leadership abilities," wide receiver Michael Moore said. "I don't want to say we didn't have leadership last year because we definitely did with people like Mohamed (Massaquoi) and Corvey Irvin. But Joe's a more rah-rah guy. He'll get in your face and get you amped up. It's little things like that. That's the No. 1 thing that stands out to me between him and Matt."

Down the road at Florida, the Gators have a smooth-talking quarterback of their own. In fact, Florida thought so highly of Tim Tebow's post-game speech after a loss to Mississippi last season, that the school had his words etched into a plaque that will now hang outside the team's new football facility.

Moore said he thinks Cox can bring that same type of fire to the Georgia locker room, but he doubts he'll see any halftime speeches plastered to the locker room wall anytime soon.

"I wouldn't put it past him," Moore said. "Joe has some good quotes. But as far as hanging them up, I don't know if the head man will do that."

KEEP YOUR FRIENDS CLOSE...

A reporter joked with Mark Richt before Thursday's news conference that Lane Kiffin had called Richt "a good buddy."

The compliment might have seemed a bit odd after Kiffin had reportedly made some less-than-kind statements about Richt's recruiting abilities earlier this year, but the Georgia coach at least attempted to appreciate the olive branch.

"Well, that's good," Rich said with a wry smile. "I need friends."

Practice Notes: Ready to Hit

After being limited to lifting weights and performing in non-contact drills for over two months, the Georgia players will get a chance to hit tomorrow when they dress out in full-pads for the first time since the Capital One Bowl.

Although there won’t be an official scrimmage, UGA head coach Mark Richt is confident that the intensity will not be lacking.

“(Saturday) is going to be a spirited practice,” Richt said. “First day of pads is usually that way. I think the tension is already building, and I got a feeling that we’re gonna have to pull some guys off of each other.”

Despite giving up nearly 25 points per game a year ago, Richt made it clear that it is the defense that is making the early strides and dictating play in the majority of off-season drills.

“Defense without question is setting the tone in the spring,” Richt said. “I remember the years that I coached at Florida State, when we had that great run of 14 years in the top-5, I don’t think there was a spring where the defense didn’t kick our rear-end every year. It’s just the beginning, but the defense has really done a nice job.”

In addition to dressing out in full-pads for the first time, Georgia will also be hosting its annual Junior Day on Saturday.

“It’s a huge day,” Richt said of the opportunity. “It’s exciting that that many guys want to come. Every Junior Day we have is a little different and this year’s emphasis is going to be about the football part of it. They’ll get to see our Coaches coach and our players get after it.”

Richt expects at least 300 recruits to make the visit.

SAME FACES, NEW PLACES

Georgia’s offseason coaching shake-up didn’t exactly introduce the Bulldogs to a bunch of new faces, but former graduate assistant Bryan McClendon and former running backs coach Tony Ball have both brought new approaches to their new roles. Ball has taken over the wide receivers this season, and he’s giving each of his receivers a chance to prove their mettle with a clean slate and a fresh attitude.

“He’s got a different philosophy with what he does and how he wants to us do things, so it’s like rebuilding and starting over again,” said redshirt freshman Israel Troupe.

McClendon, who now handles Georgia’s running backs, has given his players a fresh start, too. Tailback Caleb King said McClendon has made a point of starting from scratch and re-teaching many of the fundamentals that may have faded into the background in the past.Of course, neither Ball nor McClendon have seen this spring as any drastic departure from the past, but they are excited to be undertaking a new adventure.

“It’s not too different,” McClendon said. “I’ve been through it as a player, I’ve been through it as a graduate assistant before, so I pretty much know the regiment. The biggest thing is the excitement – how excited I am to be able to work with those guys and just to be on the field coaching. It’s always great to be out there with those guys and improving those guys on and off the field.”

KICKIN’ IT OLD SCHOOL

Blair Walsh took plenty of criticism throughout last season for his problems on kickoffs, including hearing his head coach suggest he would fly to Poland to find someone who could handle the role. As it turns out, however, Walsh looks to be the guy to handle kickoff duties once again, and while he hopes to improve the results, he hasn’t changed his approach.

“I keep it the same,” Walsh said. “I approach it just like I do everything, very professionally and try to do my best at it. But I haven’t changed any way I look at it.”

As for what the coaches might have in store for him this year – whether he’ll be kicking deep, directional kicking or not kicking off at all – Walsh said he hasn’t gotten any news.

“I don’t know yet,” Walsh said. “We haven’t really done anything yet. I don’t know what their philosophy is, I don’t know what the coaches are doing or thinking about.”

STARTING FROM SCRATCH

Troupe is one of several players this spring hoping to turn a particularly minor role last season into significant playing time this year. Troupe’s game plan for working his way into the offense is simple: He’s going back to basics.

“This year coming in is kind of like my freshman year all over again,” Troupe said. “I’ve got a clean slate coming in and I’m just starting over from scratch.”

HANGIN’ IN THERE

Dallas Lee’s introduction to life in the SEC hasn’t been a particularly enjoyable one, thanks to the magic of offensive line coach Stacy Searels. But despite the typical freshman struggles, Lee – who Searels said is working out at center and guard so far – has held his own.

“He’s doing good,” Searels said. “It’s a kid who should still be in high school right now, but he’s out there working and it’s an eye-opening experience for him.”