My blog has moved!

You should be automatically redirected in 6 seconds. If not, visit
and update your bookmarks.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Tuesday Links (6/15)

A few weeks ago, The Senator posted details from Tomahawk Nation's list of championship odds for each SEC team this season. I'm still a little confused about the optimism aimed at Tennessee, but I'm also the same guy who picked roughly 41 percent of the winners in my picks columns last year.

But hey, gambling's illegal in this country anyway, so it's all just in good fun. And with that in mind, I decided to take a shot at predicting the lines for each UGA game this season. So… feel free to bookmark this post and email it back to me at year's end to prove what an idiot I am.

9/4 -- Louisiana-Lafayette. There will be plenty of questions awaiting Georgia in its first game, but the outcome won't be one of them. Dawgs by 28.

9/11 -- @ South Carolina. Gamecocks will likely still be riding the wave of preseason prognosticators predicting potential positives in the program (how's that for aliteration?), while even a big win in Week 1 won't be enough to convince anyone that Georgia has turned the corner. Game's in Columbia, so that's probably worth three for the Cocks. South Carolina by 3.

9/18 -- Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a preseason darling and open with two gimme games, so the defense won't have been exposed yet. Much of this will depend on what Georgia does in Columbia the previous week, but assuming the Dawgs don't look terrible, I think they'll still be favored. Georgia by 1.5.

9/25 -- @ Mississippi State. I think the other Bulldogs are going to be decent this year, but they won't be a favorite of Vegas. Dawgs by 7... and if you're so inclined, MSU might be a good team to bet early this season.

10/2 -- @ Colorado. Tough to call these non-conference games, but Georgia was a seven-point favorite when it went to Arizona State in 2008, but Colorado probably isn't as good as folks thought Arizona State would be that year. (Of course, neither is Georgia). So let's stick around the same number... Georgia by 7.

10/9 -- Tennessee. Again, I'm not expecting much of the Vols this year. And by early October, neither will Vegas. Georgia by 13.

10/16 -- Vanderbilt. The state of Tennessee isn't likely to see a lot of good football this year. Georgia by 17.

10/23 -- @ Kentucky. Speaking of gambling, have I mentioned that the ponies will be running at Keeneland during Georgia's visit this year? Fan-friggin-tastic. Kentucky has either won or played Georgia close for four straight seasons now, and I'm assuming Vegas won't forget that. Georgia by 6.

10/30 -- vs. Florida. I think the Dawgs will be improved this year. I also think Florida almost has to take a step back from its recent success. And although Florida has won the past two games by a combined score of 90-27, the Gators have only out-gained UGA by a total of 63 yards. The big difference? Georgia has had 8 turnovers (and a botched onside kick) and Florida has had none. That has to turn around a bit. Still... it's hard to favor the Dawgs in any game against Florida. Gators by 7.

11/6 -- Idaho State. This isn't a D-1A matchup, so no betting line. But I'll predict a Logan Gray receiving TD and passing TD. This is why I'm a bad gambler. I like to live dangerously.

11/13 -- @ Auburn. Understandably Alabama and Florida will be the preseason favorites for the SEC title game. But I wouldn't be too surprised if this game actually proved to be an advanced screening of the conference's title matchup. The more I read about the Tigers, the more I like 'em this year. Auburn by 3.

11/27 -- Georgia Tech. It's been so long since Reshad Jones hasn't determined the outcome of a UGA-Tech game, I don't know what to think. Let's say Dawgs by 3.5.

So... how far off am I on these?

OK, linkage...

-- I mentioned in the opening how the turnover margin has been the real difference in the Georgia-Florida series the last two years. Phil Steele and Senator Blutarsky look at how the Dawgs might benefit in 2010 from a more reasonable turnover margin.

-- Christian LeMay's father says his hearing that could result in a 30-day suspension "Went well."

-- Tim Tucker looks at Georgia's receiving corps in what is likely to be A.J. Green's last year in Athens.

-- Paul Westerdawg takes solace in the change made to David Perno's staff after a dismal season on the mound for the Diamond Dogs.

-- After firing his pitching coach, Perno says he's going to take a more active role in handling the hurlers in 2011.

-- Patrick Garbin offers another interesting history lesson on Georgia and another reason not to like Tennessee.

-- DawgOnTap sent me an email yesterday asking for my thoughts on this post from SEC Rivals, predicting a 4th-place finish for Georgia (and an SEC West title for LSU).

Hey, everyone's entitled to their opinion, so I'm not going to criticize. I'm just not sure Mr. Owenby applied his logic equally among all teams. The Chapel Bell offers some additional insight into the predictions.

-- Former Georgia receiver Arthur Marshall was sentenced to 69 months in prison.

-- Blitzology goes into some good detail on how and why the 3-4 is effective. (h/t GTP)

-- Funny or Die remakes "Breaking Bad" as if it were a sitcom on ABC.

-- Newsweek is calling this "a joke" but I'm telling you, when it happens for real, I'll be ready, and Florida won't.

-- Conan O'Brien got a hero's welcome in Atlanta yesterday. I had a great time at last night's show, highlighted by a phenomenal Triumph video and the always amazing Walker Lever, which for legal purposes is now called "The Chuck Norris Rural Law Enforcement Handle."

-- "Friday Night Lights" will be bringing back some old favorites for what appears to be its final season.

-- And finally, a quick side note: I'm taking the afternoon off from the blog to work on a project for later this week. I think you're going to like it though... so stay tuned.


Andrew Danger Fritze said...

Agreed with pretty much all of the lines there except for the Tech one. I truly believe that they will have a huge let down of a season. I wouldn't be suprised if they came into Athens with only 6 or 7 wins. I'm willing to bet that this line will end up around 15 to 20.

Dawgfan said...

I have to disagree with the loss at USC. No way we lose to Garcia this year! Did you see their bowl game?

David Hale said...

I wasn't picking SC to win... just think that Vegas will have them as the favorite. I think UGA will win the game but I bet the line favors SC. Good chance UGA will lose a game its favored in at some point too. (ark maybe?)

Daniel said...

David, when can you start the Ealey for Heisman bandwagon? Is that bus empty, if so Ill drive. That guy scored 7 tds in one half in highschool. Thats beats Al Bundy by 3.

Anonymous said...

For those of us that HAVE placed lines on UGA games...we all know better now. UGA hardly EVER covers the spread. The Dawgs have historically been the most unpredictable team when going on the lines