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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Pressure Will Be on the 'D' in '09

In a blog post last week, ESPN's Chris Low touched on a subject I mentioned at the end of last season. Low looked at the projected starting quarterbacks (or those in consideration for a starting job) for each SEC team. Here they are, with career records as starters. See if you notice anything they have in common...

Joe Cox, Georgia: 1-0 (1.000)
Larry Smith, Vanderbilt 1-0 (1.000)
Tim Tebow, Florida: 22-5 (.814)
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss: 9-4 (.692)
Mike Hartline, Kentucky: 6-3 (.666)
Chris Todd, Auburn: 3-2 (.600)
Jarrett Lee, LSU: 4-4 (.500)
Jordan Jefferson, LSU: 1-1 (.500)
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee: 3-4 (.428)
Kodi Burns, Auburn: 3-5 (.375)
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State 3-5 (.375)
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina 1-2 (.333)
Nick Stephens, Tennessee: 2-4 (.333)
Randall Cobb, Kentucky: 1-3 (.250)
Mackenzi Adams, Vanderbilt: 2-7 (.222)
Ryan Mallett*, Arkansas: 3-0 (1.000)
Greg McElroy, Alabama: 0-0 (.000)

*All of Mallett's starts came with Michigan. He has never started against an SEC opponent.

It shouldn't be too tough to see the obvious trend here: Only Tebow (27) and Snead (13) have started more than nine games in their careers. Six of the names on that list, however, have three or fewer starts.

Now, here's a quick run down of where each SEC team finished in total offense nationally a year ago...

Florida, 445.07 (15)
Georgia, 426.00 (22)
Mississippi, 407.62 (29)
Arkansas, 373.08 (49)
LSU, 368.08 (55)
Alabama, 355.79 (63)
South Carolina, 316.54 (97)
Auburn, 302.92 (104)
Kentucky, 299.3 (106)
Mississippi St., 274.92 (113)
Tennessee, 268.75 (115)
Vanderbilt, 256.23 (117)

Look at that again. Half the league -- HALF! -- finished 97th or worse in the country in total offense. Oh, and I know all about the exceptional defenses in the SEC, but that's only a part of the reason -- and probably a pretty small part.

The fact is, the SEC was a bad offensive conference a year ago, and given that Georgia and Alabama each lost their QBs (along with other crucial offensive weapons) and Ole Miss lost its starting left tackle, its reasonable to assume that some of those respectable offenses will be a bit less so in 2009.

Of course, other teams should take a step forward -- if for no other reason than there isn't much room for them to get worse. But looking at that breakdown of QB experience, isn't it reasonable to assume that the SEC won't exactly be lighting up scoreboards this season?

So, what does all this mean? Well, it leads me to ask a handful of questions.

For one, how in the heck did Kentucky score 38 points against Georgia last year?

Second, how is anyone going to stop Florida this year?

And third, how bad will the "Fire Willie!" chats be if Georgia's defense doesn't step up in 2009?

Look one more time at the QBs. Look again at last year's offensive numbers. Georgia is going to face a lot of inexperienced quarterbacks and a lot of struggling offenses in '09 (and that's not even including Arizona State, which will feature a first-year starter and an offense that ranked 100th in the country last year).

There won't be excuses if the defense can't hold its ground this season, and given that (ironically) A.J. Green will be the only member of Georgia's offense who isn't very green this season, how well the D rebounds from last year's disappointments will likely be the difference between 11-2 and 7-6.


Anonymous said...

Great post. Though I don't think the conference will be as bad offensively as last year (due to +1 yr of experience for many players), our defense invariably has to perform better this season. I have no idea how Kentucky score 38, but Willie very well better and stop it from happening again.

Anonymous said...

I'll go ahead and get it started "Fire Willie".

Hobnail_Boot said...

Lost, holy crap.