The final bubble watch

I asked the NCAA if I could put a web-cam in the conference room where the selection committee is meeting. For some reason they turned me down, so as we sit here on Sunday morning, I can’t tell you with any huge degree of confidence whether Georgia will make it.

The bracket projections are still all over the place: Jerry Palm is predicting Georgia as a No. 11 seed, not in the play-in round, not among his last four out; but Joe Lunardi has Georgia among his last four out, along with Alabama. SI.com’s Andy Glockner has Georgia among his last six teams in (and Alabama among the last four out).

(Incidentally, if the above links don't gel with what I wrote, that's because a Sunday result has caused a change, or someone has altered their projections. One of the above experts has been known to just up and change his bracket on Sunday for no apparent reason, and I'll be curious to see if he does so again.)

There are really just two games that matter for the bubble on Sunday:

- The Atlantic 10 final: Richmond is likely in the field regardless, so if Dayton were to pull of the upset, a bid would probably be stolen. This game starts at 1 p.m.

- The Big Ten final: Is Penn State absolutely, positively in the field already? The experts think so, but you never know, so an Ohio State win couldn’t hurt. This is the final game (starting at 3:30 p.m.) before the committee’s announcement.

As I put on my own bracketology hat - and a very clunky hat it is – I think there are 12 at-large spots available, when you figure in league champs and lock teams. And that’s putting it conservatively, not assuming some teams that everyone has in, because the committee has been known to pull some surprises. And this year, with the expansion of the field, that’s even more true.

Here are the remaining candidates, with a quick resume’. Again, I see 12 spots available – 11 if Dayton beats Richmond today – and I’ve listed the teams in best guess of the pecking order:

Florida State (21-10, RPI: 54, SOS: 82, 1-5 vs. top 50, 6-9 vs. top 100)
Richmond (26-7, RPI: 44, SOS: 130, 3-3 vs. top 50, 5-6 v. top 100)
Michigan (19-13, RPI: 50, SOS: 16, 6-9 vs. top 50, 10-12 vs. top 100)
Penn State (19-13, RPI: 39, SOS: 6, 5-9 vs. top 50, 10-12 vs. top 100)
Michigan State (18-14, RPI: 45, SOS: 11, 5-13 vs. top 50, 10-13 vs. top 100)
Colorado (20-13, RPI: 65, SOS: 49, 5-7 vs. top 50, 8-10 vs. top 100)
Clemson (21-11, RPI: 56, SOS: 58, 0-6 vs. top 50, 9-8 vs. top 100)
St. Mary’s (23-8, RPI; 46, SOS: 101, 1-4 vs. top 50, 3-6 vs. top 100)
Georgia (21-11, RPI: 48, SOS: 40, 3-9 vs. top 50, 5-11 vs. top 100)
Alabama (21-11, RPI: 80, SOS: 114, 4-4 vs. top 50, 5-7 vs. top 100)
Virginia Tech (21-11, RPI: 61, SOS: 74, 2-5 vs. top 50, 8-8 vs. top 100)
VCU (23-11, RPI: 49, SOS: 87, 3-6 vs. top 50, 8-8 vs. top 100)
Southern California (19-14, RPI: 69, SOS: 39, 5-5 vs. top 50, 8-8 vs. top 100)
Boston College (20-12, RPI: 58, SOS: 38, 1-5 vs. top 50, 7-11 vs. top 100)
UAB (22-8, RPI: 31, SOS: 77, 1-4 vs. top 50, 10-7 vs. top 100)
Oklahoma State (19-13, RPI: 62, SOS: 37, 3-6 vs. top 50, 7-11 vs. top 100)
Harvard (21-6, RPI: 35, SOS: 142, 1-3 vs. top 50, 3-5 vs. top 100)
New Mexico (20-12, RPI: 66, SOS: 79, 2-5 vs. top 50, 5-8 vs. top 100)
Missouri State (25-8, RPI: 42, SOS: 127, 0-1 vs. top 50, 3-6 vs. top 100)

I'll check in with any updates during the day as warranted, and of course will have coverage of the announcement itself and reaction from Georgia. It promises to be an interesting night.