One month from today, the NCAA tournament selection committee will begin meeting to put together the 68-team field. Georgia is likely to be on that board – but Tuesday’s loss to Xavier didn’t help things.
Given the RPI numbers and the state of the bubble, Georgia’s chances should still be better than even. But the Bulldogs just aren’t playing well right now: Losing three of the last four at home, and needing to go overtime to beat woeful Auburn.
The Bulldogs need quality wins, and the chances to get them are diminishing: Vanderbilt’s visit next week would seem the best chance; unless the Bulldogs can pull off road victories at Tennessee, Florida and Alabama.
The guess here – and it’s only a snapshot guess – is Georgia needs to reach the 10-win mark in SEC play, including the tournament, to feel comfortable.
(And in case anybody's wondering, The Blog's graphics department ran out of the 50 percent bubble-watch meter, so just take my word for it: Georgia's chances are 50 percent.)
GEORGIA’S KEY STATS (using Collegerpi.com)
Record: 16-7 overall, 5-4 in the SEC
RPI: 46
SOS: 41
Record vs. top 50 in RPI: 2-7 (beat Kentucky and UAB, lost to Notre Dame, Kentucky, Florida, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Temple)
Record vs. top 100: 4-7 (also beat Mississippi and Colorado)
What happened Tuesday: Georgia’s RPI rank dropped about 10 spots after losing to Xavier, which shows that playing highly-ranked teams isn’t going to help the Bulldogs anymore if they can’t beat them. In other bubble news, Clemson’s win over Boston College wasn’t good news because BC is in decent shape already and Clemson is now fast-rising in the RPI (64).
What to watch today and tomorrow: I’d say the picture is becoming clear enough for Georgia to start rooting for its former opponents and rooting against the other teams. Therefore …
As far as former opponents, Colorado has slipped to 90 in the RPI, but a win over Texas A&M tonight would help. Arkansas (at Mississippi State) is just outside the top 100, while Ole Miss (vs. LSU) has moved up to 60. And Notre Dame has a pretty big game against Louisville.
Bubble teams in action tonight: Memphis (at UCF), VCU (at Delaware), Marquette (at South Florida), Miami (at Wake Forest), Baylor (vs. Nebraska) … and tomorrow: Florida State (at Georgia Tech), Penn State (at Michigan State), Washington (vs. California), Minnesota (vs. Illinois).
Next up for Georgia: South Carolina (RPI rank of 104) wouldn’t be a quality win right now, but the Bulldogs need all the road wins they can collect at this point. Their 6-4 record away from home, including 5-2 on non-neutral courts, may be the best thing the Bulldogs have going for them.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
New bubble watch: Georgia
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4 comments:
Hi Seth...Huge Georgia fan here.
But...
This Georgia team is not good. Their level of play and execution has gone backwards since last season,e ven.
Do you think they are NCAA-worthy? Historiccally, I mean. It is a down year for mid-majors, which is keeping us in the hunt, but I hate to say it, if we qualify, what does that say about the nation as a whole?
I am pulling for us to get in, but I hope we get in because we play well AND WIN GAMES the rest of the year, not because other teams are simply worse than us.
Thoughts anyone?
Lazarus-
I'm with you regarding their play of late - one word to describe it - SLOPPY.
**Quit with the bad passes - leading to too many turnovers
**Quit with the quick, poorly advised 3-pt tries, esp is you are not a 3 pt shooter
**Leslie needs the ball more and when he has it he needs to be more aggressive, attacking in the paint, drawing a foul at least
Toward the end of last night's game against Xavier, Xavier drove the ball into the paint over and over again - repeatedly drawing a foul (just ask Thompkins)
Leslie needs to be forbidden from taking jumpers. Hes a good basketball player when hes aggressive and for some reason hes not nearly as aggressive as he was last year.
Thompkins might only have 1 month left as a Dawg. He needs to start being the difference maker we thought he'd be when he signed. He has the ability to dominate but for certain reasons (attitude, apathy, illness, injury, etc.) has not done so.
Robinson has to be better. Plain and simple.
Someone from the bench has to contribute. I don't know who that may be but we got 0 points from our bench last night. I still would like to see more minutes for Nolte. He brings the attitude, effort, and enthusiasm that I think we lack. I don't care if he doesn't score, I think hes valuable in so many other ways.
BCSAV . . . you're just wrong.
Chris Barnes had 7 points off the bench. In fact, our bench outscored theirs 7-2.
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