SEC tourney: Breaking down Georgia's scenarios

Georgia finishes the regular season this week by playing LSU and then Alabama. Next week is the SEC tournament, where it’s very possible Georgia could play … LSU and then Alabama.

Here are the current SEC standings:

EAST …….. W-L …… Div.
z-Florida ……. 11-3 …… 7-2
Vanderbilt … 9-5 …….. 4-4
Kentucky …... 8-6 ……. 5-3
Georgia …….. 8-6 …….. 4-6
Tennessee …. 7-7 ………. 4-4
S. Carolina … 5-9 ……… 2-7

WEST
z-Alabama …… 11-3 ……. 8-2
Arkansas …..… 7-7 ……….4-4
Mississippi St. . 7-7 …….. 5-4
Ole Miss ….….. 6-8 .…….5-3
LSU ………..…. 3-11 ….… 3-6
Auburn ……….. 2-12 ….. 1-7

z-Clinched top seed

And here’s the SEC tournament schedule:

First round:
Game 1: W5 vs. E4, 1 p.m.
Game 2: E6 vs. W3, 3:30 p.m.
Game 3: E5 vs. W4, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: W6 vs. E3, 10 p.m.

Quarterfinals:
Game 1 winner vs. Alabama, 1 p.m.
Game 2 winner vs. E2, 3:30 p.m.
Game 3 winner vs. Florida, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4 winner vs. W2, 10 p.m.

The East is quite the muddle between second and fifth. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, the next is division record.

Georgia will lose a tiebreaker if it finishes in a two-way tie with any of the other three teams: Vanderbilt has the head-to-head sweep, while Kentucky and Tennessee will have better division records.

It only gets a bit better for Georgia if there are three- or even four-way ties. The first tiebreaker is record between the tied teams, but at best Georgia has the split with Kentucky and Tennessee. So after at least one team wins that tiebreaker, it goes back to division record, where Georgia will not have an advantage.

So basically, in order to avoid the fifth seed, Georgia needs to have the better win-loss record. And that’s entirely possible. The remaining schedule:

Vanderbilt …. At Kentucky, vs. Florida
Kentucky ….. vs. Vanderbilt, at Tennessee
Georgia ……. vs. LSU, at Alabama
Tennessee ….. at South Carolina, vs. Kentucky

Mathematically Georgia could still finish second: Vanderbilt would have to lose out, Georgia would have to win out, and Kentucky would have to lose at Tennessee.

On the other hand, fifth place is still a possibility, even if Georgia beats LSU: Tennessee wins out, Kentucky beats Vanderbilt and Georgia loses at Alabama.

But given all the tiebreakers, the fourth seed seems a decent bet. That would mean a first-round matchup with the West fifth seed, which almost certainly will be LSU. And the winner of that game gets Alabama.

Anyway, I think I have all this right. Feel free to correct any of my scenarios or math. But as near as I can figure, that's where it stands.