Updating Georgia's bowl picture (assuming you still care)

An official from the Liberty Bowl was standing a few feet away from Mark Richt on Saturday during the Georgia head coach’s postgame press conference. That’s not too unusual – those people in their garish jackets are everywhere – but it was another indication of Georgia’s possible bowl destination.

The New Year’s Day bowls are now all but officially out, thanks to the loss to Auburn. So Bulldog fans, you can pretty much start making your plans to either go to Nashville, Memphis or Birmingham – or to stay home.

(Or you may be so turned off by this season that you stay home while Georgia continues its bowl streak. Hey, it’s your choice. I have to go either way.)

If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, it's guaranteed to make a bowl. But which one depends heavily on whether Tennessee and/or Ole Miss qualifies and the SEC gets a second team in the BCS.

Here’s the SEC breakdown as of now:

BCS: The SEC looks good to have two teams qualify. As of today it would be Auburn in the title game, and LSU (or Alabama) getting an at-large. Auburn would probably have to lose both of its final games (Alabama and the SEC title game) not to get in. LSU would have to fall to Ole Miss or Arkansas. South Carolina would get in, obviously, if it beats Auburn in Atlanta. Alabama would have a shot too if it wins the Iron Bowl.
Basically, that’s too many possibilities not to proceed under the assumption that the SEC won’t get two teams. Current prediction: Auburn and LSU.
Capitol One: This bowl probably takes the team that just misses the BCS, either Alabama or LSU, or maybe even South Carolina. Current prediction: Alabama.
Cotton: This has Arkansas or Mississippi State written all over it, unless LSU slips out of the BCS picture. Current prediction: Arkansas.
Outback: This bowl likes to be mavericky, as Tina Fey would say, so who knows. Current prediction: Mississippi State.
Chick-fil-A: My understanding is this bowl was very intrigued by having Georgia. That’d be too tough a sell now. Current prediction: South Carolina.
Gator: You can see why the Gator abandoned getting one of the ACC’s top teams in favor of having only the sixth selection of SEC teams. Even at this level of the pecking order, it’s looking at getting a team like Florida, South Carolina or Mississippi State, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. Current prediction: Florida.

And here’s where Georgia comes in.

Music City: Kentucky has been here two straight seasons, and figures to still be on the board this time around too. If Georgia is 6-6, this could be the destination, unless the SEC only gets one team in the BCS, or Tennessee wins out to also get to 6-6. Current prediction: Georgia.
Liberty: The consolation prize for not getting the Music City bid. Current prediction: Kentucky.
BBVA Compass: The only way Georgia falls this far – well there’s another way, which I’ll get to – is if Tennessee or Ole Miss win out, and one of them or Kentucky gets picked for each of the above bowls over Georgia. Not likely.
Current prediction: Tennessee if it beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky, or Ole Miss if it beats LSU and Mississippi State. If not ... get someone from the Sun Belt on the phone.

There’s still a very remote chance that Georgia makes it with a 5-7 record – but not remote enough that we can’t still examine it.

At the moment, there are 55 bowl-eligible teams, with 70 bowl slots to be filled. Here’s the breakdown by conference:

ACC: 6
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
Big Ten: 7
Independents: 2 (Army and Navy but not Notre Dame)
Conf. USA: 5
MAC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-10: 4 (omitting Southern California, which isn’t eligible.)
SEC: 8
Sun Belt: 0
WAC: 4

There are 26 teams that are currently eliminated from consideration. But if there aren’t 70 six-win teams that are eligible, it opens back up. One idea is to let a non-FBS team in. Failing that, or just canceling a bowl, here’s betting a brand name BCS conference team, like Georgia or Georgia Tech, would get the nod.